UK — England; Wales. Despite the persistent controversy of transwomen (male) prisoners housed in the female prison estate, the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) does not disaggregate transgender sexual offenders by sex. Meanwhile, gender ideologues claim transwomen (transgender males – TGM) pose no greater threat to the female population than…females.
New aerospace analysis applied to MoJ transgender sexual offender statistics, obtained in Freedom of Information (FoI) requests, tells another tale. In the absence of disaggregation by sex, this measure of sexual offender per capita of the transgender population (both sexes) is already far higher than that of the female population. It is the stark difference in the propensity to sexually offend between male and female, that is key to the sex-segregation controversy for all public spaces sex-segregated for the sexual protection of the female population.
The MoJ recently stated that safe-guarding of female prisoners relies upon “individual offending histories” of transgender males when less than 2% of rapes result in a conviction. This MOJ process seems to take no account of the “individual sexually offended against” histories of female prisoners, nor of the necessarily higher incidence of female specific rape trauma among them, than average.
What the BBC “Reality Check” (13 Aug 2018) missed, when assessing the 2016-17 transgender sexual offender total of 60, was that while 60 was a low numerical value, it was over half the 111 total of female sexual offenders. That – when the total transgender population of England and Wales was a tiny fraction of the total female population according to the very GRA Consultation 2018, the reason for this BBC “Reality Check.” This study adjusts the sexual offender statistics by national population.i
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Sources: MoJ OMS-Q 2002-2020 & MOJ FOIs responses
Sexual offenders* – Sexual offenders* serving custodial sentences for one or more sexual offence iii
By 2018-19, the total of transgender sexual offenders has risen dramatically to two thirds of the female total, in a single 12-month period. It is easy to adjust figures for population to obtain a statistically valid comparison.iv The COVID-19 suspension of transgender data collection (March/April 2020), may have arrived in the nick of time to spare the blushes of transwomen (TGMs). This analysis shows that the question is when, not if, the transgender total will exceed the female total of sexual offenders.
Previous studies have focussed upon comparisons of transgender sexual offenders with male sexual offenders, which is interesting but not relevant to the housing of male prisoners in the female prison estate. “Individual offending histories” cannot be regarded as adequate in regard to sexual offending, with a notoriously low conviction rate, the mathematical test for entry of transgender male into the female prison estate must be that the “Propensity to Sexually Offend” of the transgender population is less than or equal to that of the Female population. The reason for the introduction of sex-segregated prisons with the advent of the 1823 Gaols Act, the work of Elizabeth Fry & John Howard among other penal reformers.
Before we look at the calculation, here are the top line figures for these three population segments:
- For three years 2017, 2018 and 2019, the average “propensity to sexually offend” of the male population on average 111-112 times that of the female population.
- For the transgender population (both sexes)i, that has been on average 37-93 times higher. The UK GEO (Government Equalities Office) population estimates both higher and lower are used; the result therefore lies between those two values.
- The incidence of female sexual offending is not only extremely low but has been confirmed to be so consistently so for at least two decades (MoJ 2002-20).
- As the Fair Play for Women study (Oct 2017) warned, the male to female ratio of sexual offenders was and remains in the order of 1:100. This in-depth analysis of UK MoJ sexual offender spreadsheets over two decades (2002-20) shows that this male to female ratio is consistently between one to 110 and 120.
Calculation of Sexual Offender per capita expressed as “sexual offender per million”
Finding a value for sexual offender per million of each population makes the calculation very simple.vi (i.e., 111 female sexual offenders in 29.9 million, 111 divided by 29.9 gives sexual offenders per million).
| March/April | Female* | Male | ‘Transgender’ (both sexes) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | 4.2 | 448 | 182-455 |
| 2017-18 | 4.3 | 461 | 142-354 |
| 2016-17 | 3.7 | 453 | 135-337 |
| Average | 4.1 | 454 | 153-382 |
| Ratio | 1 | 111 | 37-93 |
Sources: MoJ OMS-Q 2002-2020, ONS 30 June 2018 & GEO 30 June 2018
NB: according to MoJ definitions of ‘transgender’, the female* totals may already include one or more transwomen with a GRC
Statistically expressed, this measure of sexual offender per capita, called the “propensity to sexually offend” (PTSO), as derived from UK government sexual offender and population statistics over three years 2017, 2018 and 2019 shows:
The sexual offender per capita of the transgender population (both sexes) is some
35-90 times higher
than that of the female population (and a little below that of the male population).
NB: total transgender prison population is too small a sample size but total population of England and Wales isn’t. Per capita comparisons, as featured daily since the reporting of Covid-19 (March 2020).
- Preliminary Findings
The “individual offender histories”, the MoJ relies upon for the placement of transgender males within the female prison estate are completely inadequate in the context of less than 2% of all rapes result in convictions and when 88-90% of all those sexually offended against are female. - Even when MoJ transgender sexual offender statistics are not disaggregated by sex, the sexual offender per capita of the transgender population (both sexes) is not less than or equal to that of the female population. There is therefore no justification for the placement of transwomen (transgender males) in the female prison estate, including those with GRCs.
- This comparison with the whole populations of England and Wales, and not the prison populations, means that not only is there no justification for transwomen (transgender males) in female prisons but there is no justification for their entry into any sex-segregated space. Indeed, unless or until the MoJ disaggregates transgender sexual offender data, there is doubt about the housing of transmen (transgender females) in sex-segregated female spaces too.
- A full report based of this analysis is expected in the summer of 2021.
Download a PDF copy of this research
Visuals and graphical representations of these statistics are available upon request.
6 June 2021
i. Not total transgender prison population which is obviously too small a sample size but the total transgender population of England & Wales, 178,000-445,000 certainly isn’t (UK GEO 30 June 2018 & ONS 30 June 2018).
This is why the TRAlalas DEMAND that they be counted as women to skew the data. Can’t prove they are doing the crimes if they are being counted with WOMEN. Classic propaganda technique, fudge the data and redefine terms to prove your hypothesis. They’ve already GOT reports. But of course, women should not be believed, only TRAlalas tell the truth . . . THEIR truths, which have NOTHING to do with reality.
Great article. Seems to be a money saving scheme. 10% decline in women in prison, so mix the sexes.
“If, as expected, the female prison population falls longer-term, these modern facilities will allow the Prison Service to close old accommodation”
The MoJ claimed to be steering women out of prison by creating 500 spaces??? https://www.gov.uk/government/news/extra-funding-for-organisations-that-steer-women-away-from-crime
Camden council & Stoke council closed men’s public toilets to save money. So have several bars & restaurants.
First male to be transferred was double rapist Martin Ponting Cat A who went on to sexually assault numerous women. Really taking histories into account aren’t they?
https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-mail-on-sunday/20180603/28174986003969
Didn’t take Martin Ponting’s history or Karen White’s history before they went onto abuse women.
Didn’t take Gordon Pike’s, John Money’s or Stonewall’s history into account?
Tim’s cannot possibly have a lower rate than other males. The sheer amount of them on lesbian dating websites, sending death threats, trying to remove women’s spaces, that have auto- gynephilia which is very common in child sex abusers, that watch ‘sissy hypno’ and the dozens of men have already abused women in prison suggests it is far higher.
I thought trans people were already over-represented in prison? What is the BBC arguing here?
1 in 50 prisoners self- identify as trans vs 1 in 200 general population. Maybe BBC article before this was known.
Hi Pen,
Your link did not work for me, but we previously wrote about Martin Ponting here.
I think the justice system could find alternatives to prison for the vast majority – though not all – women. Only 5% of UK inmates are female (female inmates typically range between 4-7%, regardless of where you look in the world), and the vast majority of UK female inmates are imprisoned for non-violent, typically property offenses (true for female inmates in other countries, as well).
As per UK report Corston 2007, which said effectively women shd be serving copmmunity sentences and only in the very rare cases they are dangerous (as male offenders) shd they be actually locked up.
I’m gonna have to go watch to some comedy in order to not start screaming into the void
Imagine how Clare feels knowing these fundamental mathematical relationships for 3 YEARS. “Losing the will to live.”
at Elizabeth Frantes: the point of these actual sexual offender stats is they give a very clear pattern that has NOT changed, since 2016 when MOJ started counting male transwomen as if Female. EVEN WITH a handful of transwomen counted as IF “female” (they can never be the UK Govt stats still show that 99% of all sexual offenders are MALE. Rhetorical devices for feminist warnings are not the same as the actual facts which even with distortion totally vindicate the need for sex segregation in all spaces (as previously).
START DEPLOYING THESE STATS.
Oh, I have been deploying these stats Clare! Thank you so much for all your hard and meticulous work.
Of course I do come across some XYs (and even a few other women) who carry on as if these stats are somehow irrelevant as they were collected from the UK – but as I am sure you are well aware, males have very similar rates of criminality wherever one is in the world and whatever they choose to wear &/or poison themselves with pharmacologically.