Key Takeaways

UK Ministry of Justice (MOJ) Offender Management of Statistics – Quarterly (OMS-Q)

Prison Population Statistics [2001-2020]

• More than 99% of all Sexual Offenders are MALE, i.e., virtually ALL
• Between 88-90% of all those sexually offended against are FEMALE
• Female Sexual Offending – the exception that proves the biological male rape and sexually offending rule

The real question missed by commentators to date is

‘Does anyone believe 99% of all transgender sexual offenders are transmen (transgender female TGFs)’

consistent with ‘transmen are men’? IF not, then the hypothesis ‘transwomen are women’ cannot be sustained either.

UK — . For the last two and a half years, I have been undertaking detailed analyses of prison population data for England and Wales, using sentenced offender data provided by the Ministry of Justice (MOJ). These in-depth analyses involve techniques drawn from my time working as an engineer comparing complex numerical values of aircraft parts in the aerospace industry. To understand transgender offending patterns, it is important to establish how these patterns compare to statistical baselines. That is, if we want to understand whether the transgender POPULATION has a higher or lower rate than men (or women) as a population, we first need to understand what these rates are. As the saying goes, ‘context is all’.

Establishing the baselines of prison population, sentenced for sexual or violent offences.

Many people are surprised to discover that despite an approximately 50:50 female-to-male in the total population, less than 5% of the total prison population is female. The 3.9% figure is an all-time low following the release of the least dangerous prisoners in the wake of the UK Covid-19 lockdown on 23 March 2020. In fact, this is a pattern repeated globally: the female prison population is always a small fraction of the total prison population, with this less than 5% figure consistent across settled western democracies such as western countries of the European Union and the U.S. and countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

The biological sex specificity of rape & other sexual offences

This difference between female and male criminal offending is even more stark when it comes to prisoners serving sentences for one or more sexual offences. In fact, at no point in the two decades since 2001 has the percentage of male sexual offenders dropped below 99%. This stark sex differential in sexual offender is the same in the U.S. and other comparable countries, notably Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the Republic of Ireland and the Nordic five (made up of Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and Iceland).

To set this in context, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggested that 88% of those ‘sexually offended against’ were female (ONS 8 Feb 2018), with a corresponding figure of 90% from Eurostats, in their report of Sexual Offending in the European Union. Thus, the overwhelming majority of sexual offences are committed against women and girls (female for the avoidance of doubt). Rape Crisis (England & Wales) gives a comparison of 1 in 5 females to 1 in 25 males, raped since 16th birthday. In fact, looking at statistics from 2001 to 2020, the same pattern emerges year after [remorseless] year:

more than 99% of all sexual offenders are male.

‘Propensity to Sexually Offend’: the female exception that proves the biologically male rule

The table below of the totals from 2016-2020 highlights the stark difference between the ‘propensity to sexually offend’ (PTSO) of the female population of England & Wales, compared to the male population. It is so stark you can say that ‘female sexual offending is the exception that proves the biologically male rule’. For statistical accuracy, the definition of ‘sexual offender’ is important; this is a count of those serving custodial sentences for one or more sexual offences, i.e., convicted to the legal test of ‘beyond all reasonable doubt’.

In fact, over a twenty-year period, the proportion of sexual offenders who are male has never dropped below 99% of the total population of sexual offenders.

In numbers, for England & Wales (with a population of 59.1 million at 30 June 2018), the number of male sexual offenders hovers between 12,000-13,000, whereas the number of ‘female’ sexual offenders in any given year has never reached 130. As Fair Play for Women observed, this represents an approximately 1: 100+ numerical relationship. However, unlike any other form of offence type, the overwhelming majority of the detriment of sexual offending falls upon the female population, in an offence type in which the ‘Victim’s’ Commissioner for England & Wales (Vera Baird QC DBE) asserted, “We are witnessing a decriminalisation of rape” (14 July 2020).

Measure of ‘Propensity to Sexually Offend’ contains ‘benefit of the doubt’ for all biological males, regardless of Gender Identity

Looking closely at the MOJ | HMPPS figures for 2018-19, we find a total of 126 “female” prisoners had been convicted of one or more sexual offences. That figure almost certainly includes at least one male transwoman, counted as if female, which artificially raises the female total of sexual offenders at the data collection date. That does not mean that any statistical statements are voided, just that they need to be carefully described, with that numerical doubt factored in.

In fact, this statistical corruption builds in a ‘benefit of doubt’ to the measure of ‘Propensity to Sexually Offend’ (PTSO) for all biological males, because the male total is artificially reduced (~13,000 minus 1 is less significant) and the female total is raised (in this example 125+1), with a completely disproportionate elevation of the ‘female’ tally. However, even with that distortion in both directions taken into account, the result in this statistical statement is the same. “In 2018-19, more than 99% of the sexual offenders serving custodial sentences for one or more sexual offences, was male.”

NB: Statistical Corruption of the term ‘female*’ since 31 March 2016 – start of MOJ Transgender Statistics

It should be noted that the MOJ definition of “female” has become statistically corrupted since at least the March/April 2016 data collection period, when the MOJ started collecting ‘transgender’ statistics. However, even with that uncertainty factor, this change in data collection protocols, which serves to artificially elevate the total of ‘female’ sexual offenders, the statement “more than 99% of all sexual offenders are male” holds true.

Moreover, ‘Legacy’ tables, which appeared in the MOJ Offender Management Statistics –  Quarterly (OMS-Q) system during Covid ‘lockdown’, show that in the two decades since 2001 the percentage of male sexual offenders*, serving sentences for one or more sexual offences, has never dipped below 99%.

Statistics VITAL for the Protection of “Female people” from Rape by “Male people” Buried & inaccessible

These statistics, absolutely VITAL for the protection of “female people” from rape by “male people”, lie buried at the bottom of the MOJ database and are totally inaccessible to the overwhelming majority of the female population. This makes a mockery of the MOJ ”End-to-End Rape Review” (18 June 2021) and expressions of regret by Minister of Justice Robert Buckland [QC MP] and Home Secretary, Priti Patel, who claimed only a month ago to be sorry and ashamed about the de-criminalisation of Rape (18 June 2021).

I cannot stress enough that the sex-specific sexual offender statistics are VITAL for the protection of women and girls from rape and other sexual offences, especially for rational decisions about safe-guarding in, for example, NHS hospitals. My Covid vaccine nurse was appalled at the 99% figure for sexual offenders and the look of horror on her face showed she understood the safeguarding implications (“I had no idea it was so high”).

It is my fear and strong suspicion, that we have these 2001-2015 sexual offender statistics, not by deliberate act of the UK government, but by the consequence of a fluke MOJ statistician who had time on his or her hands while working at home during the as-never-before lockdown of a fluke once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. However, that’s why you need a numerically-driven woman, displaying the female specific characteristic of autism for, one simply could not let the numerical incongruence go – i.e. me! Hence, for the last two and a half years, with this advanced understanding of the MOJ prison population statistics has been literally like the child yelling out “The Emperor has no clothes…”

In constructing the MOJ Offender spreadsheets, it is harder to think of a better demonstration of the Caroline Criado-Perez principle as described in her book Invisible Women: Data Bias in a World Designed for Men, which creates not just a single detriment to the female population but creates “a succession of compounding detriments for the female prison population” and buries statistics VITAL for the protection of women & girls from rape and other sexual offences, such that they are inaccessible to individual women and lawyers and all attempting to advocate for women and girls, as we must say these days, ‘female for the avoidance of doubt’.

Statistically Accurate Statements: Exemplar interpretations (Statistics NZ | Tatauranga Aotaeroa)

• NB 1: as of 29 January 2021, the female prison population fell to an all time low of 3.9% of the total prison population (England & Wales). Following covid-19 emergency risk-assessments in March 2020 to release the least dangerous prisoners, among whom female prisoners were disproportionately represented.
• NB 2: Female prison population never more than 6% in the 70 years since 1950 Source: UK MOJ OMS-Q (Offender Management Statistics – Quarterly) 2001-20
• NB 3: For at least two decades UK MOJ statistics show that “99% of all sexual offenders are MALE…”

To conclude, the incidence of male sexual offending could not be more different from female sexual offending: there are over one hundred times more male sexual offenders. Beyond the incidence (ie frequency), there is the completely different character of female sexual offending, in which zero of those sexually offended against are adult males. Lest that leave a false impression, and for the avoidance of all doubt, the majority of sexual offences against children are committed by male adults and children and the ratio by sex of those ‘sexually offended against‘ before their 16th birthday is a 5:1 female:male ratio.

Given these findings, do we actually believe that 99% of all transgender sexual offenders are i.e. transgender females who gender identify as men i.e. transmen? Do we believe that their incidence of sexual offender is the same as biological males? That seems incredibly unlikely, but that is the only way the population of male transwomen can be 1% of the transgender sexual offenders.

As these statistics have shown, it is vitally important that the criminal justice system (police, courts, prisons & probation and criminal records checking) record the biological sex of all individuals investigated, charged, convicted, imprisoned for sexual offences, including rape and attempted rape, albeit in addition to the gender identity and possession of a Gender Recognition Certificate.

ACTION

Sign this petition to the U.K. parliament to record the SEX of all violent and sexual offenders: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/590123 This petition is open to anyone with resident status in the U.K., as well as all British citizens living anywhere in the world.

_{Clare B Dimyon: Preliminary study adjusting the 2016-17 for population – just like Covid statistics: Transwomen Sexual Offenders a Closer Analysis of MOJ Statistics (Medium 14 Sept 2018)}